China consumes more copper and other basic goods. In other industrialized countries grow the raw material appetite. This leads to considerable price rises.
A fiery red raw everyone is talking about: some nine years ago was the price of copper at around $ 1500. In October 2011, the metal is then noted already at almost $ 8,000. This corresponds to a jump in price inflation by more than fivefold.
The reason for this rapid growth is quickly identified: The world demands for copper - especially in China. In 1997, the Middle Kingdom spent barely more than five percent of global production. 2008 but the percentage was, according to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute at 29 percent.
Also the world's appetite for copper rose. In 2003, consumption was reported to the International Copper Study Group at 15.72 million tons, in 2010 there were already nine million tonnes. The lion's share of the additional demand was on the account of the People's Republic. Crucial to the copper hype is that the metal is very conductive and therefore for the construction of infrastructure almost indispensable.
No wonder then that China, which currently invests heavily in its infrastructure is in urgent need of the alloy. But not only the People's Republic of copper buys in huge quantities. China is today for many raw materials of the world's biggest buyer. According to the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) in 2009 China consumed 40.5 percent of global production of aluminum. When nickel demand was the Middle Kingdom in the same year a share of 35.9 percent - in steel and coal, there were even more than 50 percent.
"China remains an important factor in the commodity markets," says Torsten Dennin, fund manager of the VCH Expert Natural Resources. But also the other customers are not despise. "Europe and the United States come together around a third of the global metals demand and thus also have great impact," said Dennin.
One factor, which only little attention. This could be due to the consumption of copper, for example in Germany in 2009 plummeted by 19 percent over the previous year. "But this has no structural causes, but rather is due to the recession this year," says Volker Steinbach, head of the German Agency Dera commodity.
Less dependence on imported raw materials
As early as 2010, the copper consumption rose by 15.7 percent, reaching almost its pre-crisis levels. The reason is simple. In Germany 57 percent of the copper in cables and electrical products are consumed around 15 percent in the construction industry, nine percent in the automotive industry, and eight percent in engineering.
All these industries have suffered significant revenue losses in 2009 attracted, but in 2010 again strong. At the same time, the consumption rose to copper and other metals such as aluminum, zinc or lead.
The local consumption has an impact on the world market. Finally, Germany is not only copper but also for aluminum, lead, nickel and tin on the top five consumer countries in the world. In other industrialized countries grow the raw material appetite. So the U.S. is almost all second-largest base metals consumer China.
This is Japan, which counts for most industrial metals to the five largest consumers. "Because of the destruction wrought by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami there upcoming infrastructure investments could lead to an additional strong increase in demand in the near future," said Dennin.
Far less dominant role of China is for oil. "China's share of oil consumption has indeed grown, but he is only about ten percent of global consumption," said Dennin. By contrast, the U.S. consumed about 20, Europe 16 and Japan nine percent.
In these countries there are efforts to reduce dependence on imported raw materials as a whole. "Given the rise in commodity prices and market-induced shortage of technically as Germany increasingly worked on a more efficient use of resources, it is increasingly recycled and research on substitution possibilities," Steinbach says of the Dera. Overall, he believes, however, that developed countries will continue to have a high demand for imports of primary commodities.
Part 3: Significant increases in demand for rare earths
This applies even more for raw materials needed for future technologies. According to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute, the demand for such basic goods in the coming years will increase rapidly. Of the world production of gallium in 2006 about 16 percent went to emerging markets such as LED technology and thin film photovoltaics. In 2030, the need to increase to around 400 percent of the 2006 production.
Significant increases in demand, experts expect even in some rare earths, such as indium, scandium and germanium. "There are just the developed countries along with China, which will provide for this demand growth," said Steinbach.
China has so far not the only major player in the commodity market. This is particularly true with regard to other leading emerging economies such as India, Brazil or South Africa. "We see the infrastructural development of China, but other emerging markets will follow," says Steinbach.
What can this mean for the consumer of copper, for an example.
In industrialized countries, the annual per capita consumption around nine kilograms, China has caught up because of the rapid development of four kilograms. "Since India is to invest in expanding its infrastructure, could develop the land in the next ten years, an important demand factor," predicts Dennin.
A fiery red raw everyone is talking about: some nine years ago was the price of copper at around $ 1500. In October 2011, the metal is then noted already at almost $ 8,000. This corresponds to a jump in price inflation by more than fivefold.
The reason for this rapid growth is quickly identified: The world demands for copper - especially in China. In 1997, the Middle Kingdom spent barely more than five percent of global production. 2008 but the percentage was, according to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute at 29 percent.
Also the world's appetite for copper rose. In 2003, consumption was reported to the International Copper Study Group at 15.72 million tons, in 2010 there were already nine million tonnes. The lion's share of the additional demand was on the account of the People's Republic. Crucial to the copper hype is that the metal is very conductive and therefore for the construction of infrastructure almost indispensable.
No wonder then that China, which currently invests heavily in its infrastructure is in urgent need of the alloy. But not only the People's Republic of copper buys in huge quantities. China is today for many raw materials of the world's biggest buyer. According to the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) in 2009 China consumed 40.5 percent of global production of aluminum. When nickel demand was the Middle Kingdom in the same year a share of 35.9 percent - in steel and coal, there were even more than 50 percent.
"China remains an important factor in the commodity markets," says Torsten Dennin, fund manager of the VCH Expert Natural Resources. But also the other customers are not despise. "Europe and the United States come together around a third of the global metals demand and thus also have great impact," said Dennin.
One factor, which only little attention. This could be due to the consumption of copper, for example in Germany in 2009 plummeted by 19 percent over the previous year. "But this has no structural causes, but rather is due to the recession this year," says Volker Steinbach, head of the German Agency Dera commodity.
Less dependence on imported raw materials
As early as 2010, the copper consumption rose by 15.7 percent, reaching almost its pre-crisis levels. The reason is simple. In Germany 57 percent of the copper in cables and electrical products are consumed around 15 percent in the construction industry, nine percent in the automotive industry, and eight percent in engineering.
All these industries have suffered significant revenue losses in 2009 attracted, but in 2010 again strong. At the same time, the consumption rose to copper and other metals such as aluminum, zinc or lead.
The local consumption has an impact on the world market. Finally, Germany is not only copper but also for aluminum, lead, nickel and tin on the top five consumer countries in the world. In other industrialized countries grow the raw material appetite. So the U.S. is almost all second-largest base metals consumer China.
This is Japan, which counts for most industrial metals to the five largest consumers. "Because of the destruction wrought by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami there upcoming infrastructure investments could lead to an additional strong increase in demand in the near future," said Dennin.
Far less dominant role of China is for oil. "China's share of oil consumption has indeed grown, but he is only about ten percent of global consumption," said Dennin. By contrast, the U.S. consumed about 20, Europe 16 and Japan nine percent.
In these countries there are efforts to reduce dependence on imported raw materials as a whole. "Given the rise in commodity prices and market-induced shortage of technically as Germany increasingly worked on a more efficient use of resources, it is increasingly recycled and research on substitution possibilities," Steinbach says of the Dera. Overall, he believes, however, that developed countries will continue to have a high demand for imports of primary commodities.
Part 3: Significant increases in demand for rare earths
This applies even more for raw materials needed for future technologies. According to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute, the demand for such basic goods in the coming years will increase rapidly. Of the world production of gallium in 2006 about 16 percent went to emerging markets such as LED technology and thin film photovoltaics. In 2030, the need to increase to around 400 percent of the 2006 production.
Significant increases in demand, experts expect even in some rare earths, such as indium, scandium and germanium. "There are just the developed countries along with China, which will provide for this demand growth," said Steinbach.
China has so far not the only major player in the commodity market. This is particularly true with regard to other leading emerging economies such as India, Brazil or South Africa. "We see the infrastructural development of China, but other emerging markets will follow," says Steinbach.
What can this mean for the consumer of copper, for an example.
In industrialized countries, the annual per capita consumption around nine kilograms, China has caught up because of the rapid development of four kilograms. "Since India is to invest in expanding its infrastructure, could develop the land in the next ten years, an important demand factor," predicts Dennin.
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